Can Bayes Theorem Convert Sam Harris?
Have you ever yearned for hard proof that miracles really do exist? Well, Presh Talwalkar over at Mind Your Decisions suggests using Bayes Theorem to turn cynics into believers, all while maintaining their status as “rational person.” The formula is used to determine the likelihood of an event, by computing the probability of an occurrence that is conditional on a prior hypothesis. For example, doctors use Bayes Theorem everyday in their diagnoses – beginning the patient exam with guesses about the probable cause of the problem, and updating these probabilities based on specific symptoms. The diagnosis that comes from this process is the likely cause. Francis Collins, one of the leaders of the Human Genome Project and the author of The Language of God, says we can use this theorem to decide whether a miraculous event occurred due to natural causes or as a result of divine intervention. Collins uses the example of being taken captive by a madman and surviving based on a card game to demonstrate that the escape was a probable miracle, as opposed to a sure bet. So basically, if you accept the supernatural as plausible, it is rational to believe that miracles exist, and the Bayes Theorem can be applied to asses the probability of a miracle behind an event. Got that? For another side to the argument about the divine, Sam Harris talks about the possibility of a creator. But he’s not so convinced.
