Innovation is just doing what other people do. If you make an investment and you feel good about it, you will lose money, okay? If you feel a little sick to your stomach, you'll make money. Okay, here's why you’re going to make no money in stocks for the next ten years. Stock market goes up and flat for seventeen year periods. Seventeen years from '60 to '82, you made nothing, nothing. The next seventeen years, you made 11 times your money. We're seven years in, we've got ten years to go, okay? This is why stocks are not cheap, because if you look at them at normalized earnings, it’s the fourth highest, 1901 - 1929 - 1973 all ended badly. Stocks are very simple. When you pay 13 times earnings or less, you always make money the next ten years, you've never lost money. When you pay 19 times, where we are today, half the time you lose real money, not underperformed but you lose real money. The other half you make 1.4%. To get 11% in stocks, you have to do one of these three things; this is not my view, this is reality, this is simple math. Either the PE has to go from nineteen to twenty-nine, did happen once in 200 years or it has to stay at nineteen and not go back to fourteen; profit margins all time record high at 7.7 have to go to 10.4, everybody's at a profit Microsoft, one's a monopoly the others aren't; or sales have to go not at 2% but 11; that's as likely as a meteor striking us right now, didn't happen, not going to happen either, okay? A-fed-low, as long as the fed 12 interest rate is low, everything's great. Japan tried this; there's Japan, there's Japan on drugs down 75%, 9 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1/2. Low interest rates are a sign of economic weakness, folks, not economic strength. We do not want him to cut interest rates; he knows how bad it is; he knows there's $300 billion of home-bridge debt; he knows that companies profit margins are going down; he know that faz at 157 means they have to mark all this crap to zero; what its really worth. It's going to get ugly, okay? Wise gress grapes, skate to where the puck was going to be, skate to where the puck is, you just get tired because the puck moves faster than you can skate; should have at least 56% of your money outside the US. You should be skating to where the puck is; that's 75% outside. Asia used to rule the world; then the UK; then the US. We used to be number 9 down there with Prussia, not sure where that is. Today we're feeling smug at number 1; by 2050 they're number 1 in China, okay? But if you adjust for purchasing power, thirteen years from now, China's twice as big as us, India's twice as big as Japan, okay? We use a lot of oil, okay; twenty-six barrels per person, China's two. If China goes from two to seven in Mexico, how much of global spare capacity does that use up? All of it times 4. We have to find Saudi Arabia for China in the next ten years. If you know where that is? Don't tell anyone, tell me, okay? The real problem is 80% of what we know exists is in the wrong hands; Sudan, Venezuela, crazy people. We won't talk to them; China says, 'you want arms? Great here are the arms, give us the damn oil.' The rest of us get to fight over the 20%, when a lot of people fight over little stuff, what happens to price? It goes to 200; get ready for it, okay? People say it's going back to 40, how? If you're Saudi Arabia or Exxon Mobile, how long do you let your price be below your marginal cost? Marginal costs, finding, developing, taxing, and transporting are $50; 4 1/2 nanoseconds in feb-rated 4999, right back to eighty-something this morning, okay? We've used up half, you shot the ground Beverly Hillbillies it bubbles up, the second half you have to suck really hard to get it up, get used to high oil prices. So people say, 'Mark, you're so bearish, right?' I'm not, I hate two things: I hate US stocks and I hate US bonds. I love everything else.